Projects

IMO GloMEEP

IMO GloMEEP (Global Maritime Energy Efficiency Partnerships Project ) is USD 2million project funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which aims to support increased uptake and implementation of energy-efficiency measures for shipping. Our work supported the developments of guidance documents and creating templates for Rapid Assessments to aid the IMO member states that are involved in the project.

Stranded assets in shipping

Funded by the Carbon War Room, this work investigates the different categories of risk that could result in asset stranding in shipping, identifies some potential future scenarios that could result in different extents of asset stranding, and proposes an analysis framework for quantifying whether a ship is or might become a stranded asset. 

Part one of this work, Dead in the Water, identified general awareness amongst most financiers of climate-related stranded asset risks but found few with plans to manage risks proactively. 

Part two of this work, Revealed Preferences, which showed that markets fail to reward owners of efficient vessels because fuel savings are not shared effectively through time charter day rates and efficient vessels don’t do more work than their less efficient peers

Part three of this work, Navigating Decarbonisation, This report takes the first step by laying the groundwork for asset-level assessment of climate transition risk. In doing so, findings suggest that the financial implications of policies designed to mitigate international shipping’s GHG emissions could be material and should thus be understood and managed

IMO 0.5% sulphur fuel oil study

As part of a consortium led by CE Delft, the demand and supply of compliant fuel oil in 2020 is studied. The project deploys GloTraM (Global Transport Model) to model the fuel supply side, such as refineries. Click here for the final report to the IMO.

CO2 reduction targets for shipping

Funded by the Danish Shipowners Association, the aim of this project is to provide the Danish Shipowners Association with support and evidence so that it can establish specific, ambitious, achievable and time dependent reduction targets for CO2 emissions. Click here for the final report.

The Existing Shipping Fleet's CO2 Efficiency

The IMO Secretariat commissioned, using residue funds donated for the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 and other related research projects, an update of the data for ship CO2 efficiency. The findings can be found in MEPC 68 inf.24.

Existing Vessel Design Index and retrofits

Funded by the Carbon War Room, this project looks to see the revision of a vessel's Existing Vessel Design Index (EVDI), and subsequent improvement in a vessels GHG rating, based on a monitoring data post clean tech retrofit. This includes the revision of the current Existing Vessel Design Index methodology, which rates existing vessels based on their design efficiency, to be able to accurately reflect a retrofit's improvement in its design rating.

Carbon credits methodology for retrofits

Funded by the Carbon War Room, this projects develops methodology with the Gold Standard and FREMCO to assess a vessel's baseline emissions pre-retrofit and quantify fuel savings directly resulting from interventions using multi-variate regression analysis.

Inventory of UK domestic GHG emissions

This project supports AEA Ricardo in an inventory of UK domestic shipping GHG emissions. Its involves estimating shipping GHG emissions using bottom-up methods and also involves an extension to include spatial attribution of emissions.

Performance analysis of hull coatings

Funded by International Paint (AkzoNobel) this project involves onboard measurements of ship performance to estimate the performance trends attributable to hull coatings. The project started in early 2015 and has been continued through to 2016.

UK shipping CO2 emissions

This project supports the Committee on Climate Change's review of the UK shipping CO2 emissions (baseline and future scenarios) building on previous CCC studies and deploys GloTraM on UK-centric trade flows.

Substantiating shipping GHG policy debates

Funded by the European Climate Foundation this project seeks to raise awareness of the implications of maritime policies and to investigate whether a sought 'best practice' has been adopted using AIS data and infographics. The project led to the launch of www.shipmap.org which was launched in April 2016 during IMO MEPC 69 and in the space of one month generated over half a million page views.

Shipping GHG: analysis, strategy and outreach

Funded by the Pisces Foundation this project further deploys research and evidence to support IMO debates on the need and justification for a progressive target for the reduction of shipping's GHG emissions. The project also aims to develop a strategy around the communication of the latest science and research on shipping's GHG emissions and forthcoming challenges, and the application of that strategy through a series of outreach activities.

Third IMO GHG Study – 2014

Dr Tristan Smith and staff from UMAS led the Third IMO GHG with a consortium of nine other organisations. The study of greenhouse gas emissions from ships (the Third IMO GHG Study 2014) was commissioned by the International Maritime Organisation as an update to the Second IMO GHG Study 2009. The objective was to review the impact of the global recession on shipping and produce new inventories and updated scenarios for the sector's future emissions. For the first time the use of big data in the form of S-AIS data was used to estimate the bottom up emissions for the sector.

The findings suggest that for the year 2012, total shipping emissions were approximately 949 million tonnes CO2 and 972 million tonnes CO2e for GHGs combining CO2, CH4 and N2O. For the period 2007–2012, on average, shipping accounted for approximately 3.1% of annual global CO2 and approximately 2.8% of annual GHGs on a CO2e basis using 100-year global warming potential conversions from the AR5. The fleet activity during the same period (2007–2012) demonstrates widespread adoption of slow steaming. The average reduction in at-sea speed relative to design speed was 12% and the average reduction in daily fuel consumption was 27%, although many ship type and size categories exceeded this average. Maritime CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly in the coming decades. Depending on future economic and energy developments, the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 BAU scenarios project an increase by 50% to 250% in the period to 2050.

Click here to read the executive summary and the full report.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

Title: Russian Green Shipping Programme (Technology Assessment & Market Review)

The UMAS team working together with a strategically established consortium were commissioned by the EBRD to undertake a technology assessment and market review of the Russian Fleet. One of the primary goals of the Russian Green Shipping Programme (RGSP) is to create an environment that stimulates the pilot scale investment in projects that brings about a reduction of bunker fuel use in excess of 50,000 tonnes with an associated GHG saving of more than 150,000 tonnes of CO2.

This work has helped clarify the nature and scale of the Russian fleet. Whilst it is still not possible to give an absolute number of Russian vessels, the report estimates that the fleet contains 9166 vessels (mix of non-cargo and cargo), a considerably higher number than previously expected and indicated by Clarksons World Fleet Register, which estimates the number to be 2908 vessels. Of the total Russian fleet, there are ships wholly engaged in international transport, importing and exporting Russia's goods, ships engaged in a combination of domestic and international transport and ships dedicated to domestic transport. The latter two categories are the most promising target for the RGSP, as they are less exposed to international competition and practices, and more affected by historical Russian under-investment. These two categories include both coastal shipping and the river/sea and river fleets, which provide vital social and commercial links for Russia's disparate communities and centres of population.

Russia has a significant inland waterways system (IWS), which is approximately 101,000 km in length. During the Soviet era there was significant investment in the IWS both in terms of infrastructure and also in terms of vessels. However in more recent years (particularly in the post-Soviet era) Russia has concentrated on transport investment in roads and railway and the IWS has been largely neglected. Our assessment indicates that there are approximately 3000 river cargo vessels (average size in the 3000 – 6000 tonnes of cargo capacity range) within the Russian fleet.

Royal Belgian Shipowners Association (RBSA)

UMAS was commissioned by the Royal Belgian Shipowners Association (RBSA) to provider further insights into ship efficiency, specifically the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) and recent policy events, such as the EU MRV policy, through examining individual ship's as well as fleets' data over this period. The understanding assisted RBSA and its members to understand best practice for energy efficiency, understand the implications of different potential public domain indexing or MRV policy developments. The work carried out provided the association with an evidence-based opinion on the merits of different operational energy efficiency indices and preparing its members for foreseeable future changes in the industry.

The Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) was developed by the IMO in order to allow ships to monitor the carbon emissions of their shipping activities. The EEOI is the total carbon emissions in a given time period per unit of revenue tonne-miles. Variations in the index are mainly caused by three factors: the technical efficiency of the ship, the amount of cargo transported per unit of time, and variations in speed. However, as the EEOI is an aggregate number, it is difficult to identify the influence of these factors.

To study this issue, UMAS decompose the EEOI into ``sub-indices" of technical and commercial factors using data on fuel consumption and cargo movements for a sample of ships from a group of shipowners belonging to Royal Belgian Shipowners' Association.

The findings suggest that over the period 2008 to 2012, there was variation in market factors such as fuel prices and freight rates. These market factors influenced the way in which the ships were operated, including the speed and the employment opportunities available and hence the commercial factors that drive the EEOI. Breaking down the basic formula leads to better transparency on the causes of variation of the EEOI. The sub-indices may help to improve operational and environmental performance for ship operators.

In light of other efficiency indicators currently being proposed at the IMO, the analysis also compared the EEOI to alternative energy efficiency indicators that have been proposed at the IMO. The work also discusses the challenges for policymakers in implementing MRV given the uncertainty in the data and measures to sanitize the data for analysis. Click here to read the full report.

Innovative Transport Solutions for Fjords, Estuaries & Rivers (iTransfer)

UMAS's involvement in this €4.5 million EU Interreg IVB project was in the policy work package investigating sustainability issues, specifically energy efficiency and GHG's, related to public procurement and tendering of ferry services in the North Sea Region. This work identifies the key drivers for public procurement and identifies some of the challenges that ferry operators and procurers can face.

The findings suggests that different types of 'split incentives' can stymie attempts to improve quality or sustainability of ferry services through the tender and procurement process. The work proposes various ways to address the split incentives in the procurement and tendering process such as through policies that incentivise the improvements in operational or in-service efficiency of ferries and revisiting some aspects of public procurement and standardising them for uniform application across all the member states.

Existing research has shown that in some EU ferry services there exist up to 30% cost efficiency gains, suggesting production costs (e.g. labour, capital, fuel) are not minimised, thus energy efficiency savings and CO2 emission reductions are foregone. Where the state does not get involved with the ownership of the vessels, non-commercially viable routes that are subsidised by the state attract older ferries of 'lower' quality and the same can also be said where the state is heavily involved in the ownership of vessels.

There is currently a strong need for the renewal of the EU's ferry fleet. Our analysis shows that almost half of the EU flagged ferries are above the age category 21 – 25 and that the average age of the existing EU flagged fleet is around 25 years, suggesting a sizeable opportunity that exists in the renewal of the fleet at the target renewal age. The incentives of the publicly-owned, privately-owned and community-owned operators to a large extent are dependent on whether they provide the vessels or only operate the vessels. The mismatch of the 'preferred' or limited concession lengths and vessel life (circa 25 years) may impact the operator's ability to procure newer or invest in energy efficient vessels and finance them over the contract period. This is further exacerbated by the inability to recoup investments in energy efficiency due to the specificities of the public service obligations (PSO's) and long chain of principal's and agents involved in the procurement and tendering process.

Click here to read the executive summary and the full report.

Intertanko

UMAS was commissioned by INTERTANKO to provide further understanding of the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) developed by the IMO. INTERTANKO provided data from its member shipowners over the period 2010-2013. The work undertaken also analysed the differences in EEOI as proposed by several member states and shows significant variation in the results from the different proposals.

International Council on Clean Transportation

UMAS was tasked by the ICCT to provide a detailed assessment of the technical and operational efficiency and CO2 emissions across all international shipping vessels, in order to assist the shipping industry stakeholders in understanding the statistics and drivers of energy efficiency in the markets in which they are operating, and to contribute to the ongoing discussions in the policy sphere around energy efficiency and GHG emission reduction. This study was the first to use Satellite Automatic Identification System (S-AIS) data to analyse the energy efficiency of the global fleet and evaluated this new data source for the estimation of energy efficiency. As well as describing the technical and operational efficiency of different fleets of ships, this work is one of the first to assess whether energy efficiency appears to be represented in prices (time charter, newbuild, second-hand) in different markets and in the selection of ships for scrapping.

The study finds that the proposed method and its novel application of Satellite AIS data can produce valuable insights into the energy efficiency of the existing fleet, particularly in characterizing the variability and heterogeneity of the fleet's operational parameters (e.g. average annual operating speed). The analysis estimates average operating speeds to be 10-15% lower for many of the bulk fleets (tankers, dry bulk), and approximately 25% lower for container ships, relative to the average annual operating speeds presented in the IMO 2nd GHG Study.

However there is high heterogeneity in the efficiency of each fleet. One example that illustrates this is the very large crude carrier fleet, which has estimated technical efficiencies ranging between 2-3 gCO2/t.nm, but estimated average annual normalized operational efficiency of approximately 2-9gCO2/t.nm. This wide spread between the most efficient and least efficient ship in many of the fleets is predominantly attributable to differences in average operating speed (even within fleets which have common design speeds), and shows a potential for further gains in average energy efficiency of many fleets from further take up of slow steaming.

Analysis of prices and energy efficiency data shows that most markets display evidence that supports the expectations that more efficient ships command higher prices. Higher prices were observed in the time charter market, to a limited extent in the newbuild market and the second hand market. There is also evidence that energy efficiency is influencing the scrapping of ships. However in the majority of cases the higher prices do not fully represent the fuel cost saving implicit in the efficiency differential.

Click here to read the executive summary and the full report.

Carbon War Room

UMAS has worked with the Carbon War Room in its shipping operations to develop a methodology for assessing fuel savings for an innovative financing model, whereby multiple vessels could be upgraded with retrofit efficiency technology with tailored preferable finance and insurance in place to facilitate the retrofits for maximum scalability across the industry.

The third party financing model brings innovative financing models used in other sectors to the shipping sector improve the uptake of proven technologies with documented service experience and fuel savings. The model allows vessels to be retrofitted with zero capital expenditure while allowing owners to benefit from the savings in fuel and CO2 emissions. UMAS had two key roles in the development of this financial model. UMAS provided a background to the barriers inhibiting uptake of proven technologies, such as the split incentives, access and cost of capital, lack of measurement and verification methods, enabling the financing model to effectively overcome these barriers. The key role, however, for UMAS, included building a robust monitoring and measurement methodology for the retrofit measures in order to rigorously test the performance claims of technology providers and bring confidence to the investors.

UMAS is also currently working with the Carbon War Room in the Shipping Innovation Fast Tracker (ShIFT) project, which aims to increase the mass uptake of double digit fuel efficiency technologies, such as wind technologies. These are less mature technologies without documented service experience which may be entrapped in the 'valley of death'. We work with six wind technology providers to provide data and research that can help to quantify the risks and benefits associated with the wind technology - to both investors and shipowners/charterers.

Some of the findings that we feel are beneficial to various technology providers seeking to penetrate the maritime sector are highlighted below:

Characterising the shipping market: For an owner or charterer to invest in a technology, they need to have the confidence they will be paying a certain amount of fuel for long-enough period of time to be able to recoup the fuel savings of the technology. The different sizes of the charter market in different sectors as well as the heterogeneity in the market can present a challenge for technology firms. Firms need to carefully consider the sector, size of the firm and their exposure to different types of charter. An initial report is presented with further details being addressed in an upcoming journal paper. 

Premium rates for energy efficient ships: A key point that influences owners decision to implement energy efficiency technology depends on whether owners who invest in more energy efficient ships are being rewarded in terms of higher rates. The extent to which the fuel cost savings are passed back to the owner-operator through higher charter rates will create direct incentives for shipowners and operators to implement wind technology. Paper written by Agnolucci, Smith & Rehmatulla (2014) show that on average 40% of the financial savings delivered by energy efficiency accrue to the shipowner for the period 2008–2012 in the drybulk panamax sector. Another report by Smith et al. (2013) shows that energy efficiency is generally factored in across the four shipping markets, the charter market, sale and purchase market and newbuildings and demolition.

Sectoral operational profiles and future demand: Understanding fleet wide characteristics especially those related to the operations of ships is important for estimating fuel savings for wind technologies as well as enabling technology providers to focus on specific sectors given the operational characteristics and future growth. The Third IMO GHG 2014 study led by UCL Energy Institute provides aggregate level information on this e.g. fleet speed, number of ships active, future demand scenarios for different ship types etc.

Click here to read the executive summary and the full report.

Sustainable Shipping Initiative

UMAS was commissioned by the Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI) to provide knowledge and expertise in the financing and technology workstreams. UMAS worked for the SSI to develop an innovative financing scheme called the Save As You Sail (SAYS) model, which targets the short-term time charters. The scheme is designed to share the fuel cost savings from investing in retrofitted energy-saving technologies between the ship owner, the time charterer and a finance provider. UMAS's role had been to investigate the barriers to retrofit, mainly the split incentives and lack of information regarding the energy efficiency premium. In the financing workstream UMAS was commissioned to investigate the operational best practices for one SSI member in order to assess the potential of emission reductions through operational measures.

The research in the financing workstream showed that that time charter is a prevalent type of charter, with over 50% of the drybulk and over 10% wetbulk ships on time charter. Around 70% of these time charters are for less than twenty four months. The findings in the technology workstream suggested that the fuel savings from these operational best practices including slow steaming were around 16% per voyage. Analysis of the 'Virtual Arrival' practices in the voyages where it was implemented was around 14% per voyage. However significant barriers were identified to the implementation of operational measures including charterparties, logistical constraints and lack of robust monitoring and reporting.

B9 Shipping

UMAS has been providing B9 Shipping with technical expertise through the deployment of the GloTraM model to estimate savings on routes for potential clients. This work capitalises on UMAS's significant in-house capability to model fuel savings on routes by combining vessel particulars with S-AIS data and wind data. UMAS also provides financial modelling to explore the different financing options available and model the investment and returns of the options.

Other related research projects

Majority of the staff in UMAS have also been involved in UK academic grants since 2009, namely the Low Carbon Shipping – A Systems Approach, a £1.5m multi-university and industry project and its follow on project, the £3.5m Shipping in Changing Climates project. Some outputs from these projects include:

Low Carbon Pathways 2050 details a number of potential pathways for the shipping industry’s transition to a low carbon future and suggests that shipping needs to start it's decarbonisation imminently.

The Promise and Limits of Private Standards to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Shipping suggests that private standards hold considerable promise but suffer to different degrees from certain weaknesses, notably a lack of transparency, a low level of ambition and concerns about data reliability. 

Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030 scenarios represent alternative futures for the world andshipping in 2030, from business as usual to more globalisation or more localisation.

For more details on these projects visit: www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk